Tuesday, 3 August 2021

DOES ANYONE DO THE MATHS?


It involves really simple calculations, but they must never be done. Why bother when the facts are irrelevant?






Today, 2 July 2021, we get the latest set of decisions from National Cabinet that has just met: see - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-02/international-arrivals-caps-covid-vaccine-national-cabinet/100263052 Overseas returns are to be reduced, but facilitated flights will be increased. Apparently there are 34,000 still wanting to get home. Does the government have a plan? No. Does it care? No. Has it ever considered the implications of its restrictions? No. Does it realise that cuts in one set of arrivals, followed by an increase in another, is likely to end up with the same total of Australians arriving home? - (a - b +b = a). Apparently not. One wonders if the whole idea is silly spin to placate and confuse criticism, especially once one sees the April 21 figures.++






The stats are simple:

Facilitated flights carry 160 at a time - there are 166 economy seats on a Qantas Dreamliner: no one sits in the 42 Business Class or 28 Premium Economy seats unless they can be sold for their premium prices. We were quoted $8,800 per Business Class seat. Using the 160 figure, this means that over 212 flights are needed to get 34,000 people home. At one flight a day, this will take over 30 weeks. Does the government realise this? It will be well into 2022 before folk get back: but the flights will not be daily, so it could be 2023 before folk arrive; maybe 2024.* The government has been told this, but it just does not care; it continues to ignore the simple maths. It always knows better. What is National Cabinet doing? If full vaccination is the solution, one has to be concerned that the year 2025 might be here first, considering the way that things are currently going.+




The worry is that the flights might only be at, say, 3 a week at best. At this rate, it will take over 70 weeks, nearly a year and a half, to get folk home. The carelessness of our government in not pulling out all stops to get folk home is a rude insult to citizenship which has been made meaningless. The claim of 'consular assistance' is very hollow.



Howard Springs Quarantine Facility


Howard Springs can accommodate 2,000 every two weeks, (National Cabinet says ‘2000 a week,’ but the quarantine period is two weeks, and the accommodation total has never been spoken of as 4,000), meaning that 25 flights a month is close to the limit. This means that the existing quarantine facilities can easily cope with 6 flights a week, taking over 35 weeks to get folk back.# This would take the return period to the end of February 2022. A plan might give some folk some hope, even if getting home might be many months away. The government has noted that the reduced numbers will be maintained at least to the end of 2021, but as with the vaccination stats, it has never noted the time necessary to have the task completed, other than considering an 'horizon.' It just does not seem to care, preferring, it seems, to concentrate on its own political power games.




It is worth noting that National Cabinet has set the new number per week at 3035, down from 6370.^ There are going to be over 13,000 booked seats on flights cancelled per month! One would not like to be waiting overseas for this government to help. But this 3035 number does not only come from the 34,000 stranded Australians, as other approved travellers are allowed prior entry; e.g. those involved in the Olympic games.** This is the greatest mess in management one can contemplate. It is a total, careless shambles that matches the implementation of the vaccination programme.+ At least there is a consistency!





The new revelation from National Cabinet is that home quarantine is safer. The government was told this over 12 months ago, in precise detail, but just would not listen. It forced us into police-escorted bus transport and unsafe hotel quarantine with no fresh air and poor food – see:

https://voussoirs.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-quarantine-room-analysis.html?m=0

https://voussoirs.blogspot.com/2021/01/quarantine-air.html

https://voussoirs.blogspot.com/2021/01/quarantine-cuisine-photographic-diary.html



What does one have to do to get sensible decisions made, let alone made promptly? The whole management of Covid has been a total shambles. Still the government has no plans for proper quarantine centres, nothing! And it still claims to be acting on medical advice. Humbug! Does it care? No. It appears to be entranced by its own indulgences.##




One is left wondering how a group of people gathering as National Cabinet can be so irresponsible; so careless. Why bother cutting commercial flights and then increasing facilitated flights? It all looks like political spin, made to muddle. The media should be putting out headlines that say that Australians will not be allowed home for eighteen months to two years; maybe longer. Instead we get the hype about blood clots.






Have folk forgotten the metre long piece of fine, folded paper that used to come with every prescription medicine, telling about the product, how to take it, and scheduling the very many risks involved, both minor and very serious? Does the media carry on about this? AZ has been killed off by grandstanding media hype and silly politicians who must think that they are smart by telling folk to wait, that the AZ jabs now will not be completed before the Pfizer given later in the year - ABCTV Q&A. They bother to do these calculations! What has this hoohaa cost the country? Does anyone care? No. This government hands out money wilky-nilly, for water, airports, sports, coal, and car parks, etc., so more of the same waste must seem irrelevant.




One just has to spruik spin, smirk a sly grin, go on holidays and ignore the rest of the world as one ponders one's present glory and future power. Considering the maths is just a waste of time. "What, Me Worry?"



Mr. Morrison, PM


++

See: https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/report-of-10000-holiday-makers-and-business-workers-enter-australia/news-story/be6b9624f4c8451a013aa39c058a1dcc

This report tells that over 10,000 arrived in April when our borders were closed, and the limit was 6370. What is happening? No one seems to care about the 34,000.


*

Recent advice from a well-promoted travel agent was that, if one left the country today, one could not expect to be back home until 2024. Why is the government not making this clear for those waiting to come home, and those wanting to leave?

+

See: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-30/australia-hasnt-learnt-the-lessons-its-bungled-vaccine-rollout/100252912

#

These calculations ignore hotel quarantine. One could speculate that numbers entering Australia over and above, and before the waiting 34,000, will fill up available hotel places and hopefully not take any Howard Springs spaces. Ironically, this number will also reduce the number who can come from the 34,000, with the limit being 3035 a week that has further restrictions with different numbers at different locations: but look at the April 21 figures above! - ? ++

^

The numbers for the '3035' total are:

Sydney 1505

Melbourne 500

Adelaide 265

Perth 265

Brisbane 650

Strangely, this breakdown equals 3185.

This is half of the original figure of 6370 as it is supposed to be.

National Cabinet doesn't seem to be able to get anything right by spruiking the 3035 figure.

Just what is going on?

It seems obvious that the maths are never done.



 **

The government refutes this, saying that the numbers are additional to the quota; but just recently 850 Olympic participants returned from Tokyo and moved into Howard Springs, taking valuable quarantine accommodation that is no longer available for others left stranded, waiting to get home.

##

Howard Springs Quarantine Facility

Howard Springs is supposed to be our ‘gold standard’ in quarantine facilities. Photographs show tat entry doors to adjacent units are side by side; and adjacent facilities share a stair and verandah handrail. The problems with hotel quarantine have all come from adjacency. Good quarantine facilities need to make sure such situations do not exist. There is a problem when the distancing rules are not implemented. The local vaccination/testing centre, (why mix these?), has the same problem: seating is placed side by side with no gaps. Here, at this converted shop with toilet cubicle-like divisions, the other poor example is the lack of masks and gloves. There is no standard that is maintained, let alone anything ‘gold.’ No one appears to care.


Howard Springs Quarantine Facility


NOTE

It might seem odd to have this subject raised in an architectural blog, but one can see it as a matter of principle in design: forget or ignore the facts at your peril. Putting off uncomfortable decisions is never a solution: see -

https://voussoirs.blogspot.com/2018/12/design-strategy-brexit-whims-wishful.html

https://voussoirs.blogspot.com/2019/02/building-dreams-how-to.html

https://voussoirs.blogspot.com/2021/02/rietvelds-chair-compromised-de-stijl.html

Rigour and commitment, and honesty, are needed. With these qualities being required for good outcomes, there is little wonder that the politicians have given us such a muddle.




The latest reports say that over 38,000 people reman stranded overseas, waiting to be allowed to come home. There is no talk of any 'Dunkirk' solution, so these folk can expect a long wait: and who cares? Not the Australian government or the smirking Mr. Morrison. Is it the next election that remains critical, and nothing else? Why has no resolute action been taken? Why is there no plan?


 4 AUGUST 2021


See also:


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-03/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-scott-morrison-original-timetable/100342474


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/03/politics-rides-roughshod-over-substance-as-scott-morrison-tries-to-spin-his-way-out-of-covid-corner?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2021/aug/03/australian-way-australian-results-scott-morrisons-28-australias-in-one-press-conference-video?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


6 AUGUST 2021

See:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-06/inquiry-on-covid-vaccine-rollout-mistakes/100354006


20 JAN 2022

At last, a reporter who is thinking, and doing some maths:

https://thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2022/01/19/michael-pascoe-omicron-intentional-scenario/

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