Tuesday, 3 August 2021

DOES ANYONE DO THE MATHS?


It involves really simple calculations, but they must never be done. Why bother when the facts are irrelevant?






Today, 2 July 2021, we get the latest set of decisions from National Cabinet that has just met: see - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-02/international-arrivals-caps-covid-vaccine-national-cabinet/100263052 Overseas returns are to be reduced, but facilitated flights will be increased. Apparently there are 34,000 still wanting to get home. Does the government have a plan? No. Does it care? No. Has it ever considered the implications of its restrictions? No. Does it realise that cuts in one set of arrivals, followed by an increase in another, is likely to end up with the same total of Australians arriving home? - (a - b +b = a). Apparently not. One wonders if the whole idea is silly spin to placate and confuse criticism, especially once one sees the April 21 figures.++






The stats are simple:

Facilitated flights carry 160 at a time - there are 166 economy seats on a Qantas Dreamliner: no one sits in the 42 Business Class or 28 Premium Economy seats unless they can be sold for their premium prices. We were quoted $8,800 per Business Class seat. Using the 160 figure, this means that over 212 flights are needed to get 34,000 people home. At one flight a day, this will take over 30 weeks. Does the government realise this? It will be well into 2022 before folk get back: but the flights will not be daily, so it could be 2023 before folk arrive; maybe 2024.* The government has been told this, but it just does not care; it continues to ignore the simple maths. It always knows better. What is National Cabinet doing? If full vaccination is the solution, one has to be concerned that the year 2025 might be here first, considering the way that things are currently going.+




The worry is that the flights might only be at, say, 3 a week at best. At this rate, it will take over 70 weeks, nearly a year and a half, to get folk home. The carelessness of our government in not pulling out all stops to get folk home is a rude insult to citizenship which has been made meaningless. The claim of 'consular assistance' is very hollow.



Howard Springs Quarantine Facility


Howard Springs can accommodate 2,000 every two weeks, (National Cabinet says ‘2000 a week,’ but the quarantine period is two weeks, and the accommodation total has never been spoken of as 4,000), meaning that 25 flights a month is close to the limit. This means that the existing quarantine facilities can easily cope with 6 flights a week, taking over 35 weeks to get folk back.# This would take the return period to the end of February 2022. A plan might give some folk some hope, even if getting home might be many months away. The government has noted that the reduced numbers will be maintained at least to the end of 2021, but as with the vaccination stats, it has never noted the time necessary to have the task completed, other than considering an 'horizon.' It just does not seem to care, preferring, it seems, to concentrate on its own political power games.




It is worth noting that National Cabinet has set the new number per week at 3035, down from 6370.^ There are going to be over 13,000 booked seats on flights cancelled per month! One would not like to be waiting overseas for this government to help. But this 3035 number does not only come from the 34,000 stranded Australians, as other approved travellers are allowed prior entry; e.g. those involved in the Olympic games.** This is the greatest mess in management one can contemplate. It is a total, careless shambles that matches the implementation of the vaccination programme.+ At least there is a consistency!





The new revelation from National Cabinet is that home quarantine is safer. The government was told this over 12 months ago, in precise detail, but just would not listen. It forced us into police-escorted bus transport and unsafe hotel quarantine with no fresh air and poor food – see:

https://voussoirs.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-quarantine-room-analysis.html?m=0

https://voussoirs.blogspot.com/2021/01/quarantine-air.html

https://voussoirs.blogspot.com/2021/01/quarantine-cuisine-photographic-diary.html



What does one have to do to get sensible decisions made, let alone made promptly? The whole management of Covid has been a total shambles. Still the government has no plans for proper quarantine centres, nothing! And it still claims to be acting on medical advice. Humbug! Does it care? No. It appears to be entranced by its own indulgences.##




One is left wondering how a group of people gathering as National Cabinet can be so irresponsible; so careless. Why bother cutting commercial flights and then increasing facilitated flights? It all looks like political spin, made to muddle. The media should be putting out headlines that say that Australians will not be allowed home for eighteen months to two years; maybe longer. Instead we get the hype about blood clots.






Have folk forgotten the metre long piece of fine, folded paper that used to come with every prescription medicine, telling about the product, how to take it, and scheduling the very many risks involved, both minor and very serious? Does the media carry on about this? AZ has been killed off by grandstanding media hype and silly politicians who must think that they are smart by telling folk to wait, that the AZ jabs now will not be completed before the Pfizer given later in the year - ABCTV Q&A. They bother to do these calculations! What has this hoohaa cost the country? Does anyone care? No. This government hands out money wilky-nilly, for water, airports, sports, coal, and car parks, etc., so more of the same waste must seem irrelevant.




One just has to spruik spin, smirk a sly grin, go on holidays and ignore the rest of the world as one ponders one's present glory and future power. Considering the maths is just a waste of time. "What, Me Worry?"



Mr. Morrison, PM


++

See: https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/report-of-10000-holiday-makers-and-business-workers-enter-australia/news-story/be6b9624f4c8451a013aa39c058a1dcc

This report tells that over 10,000 arrived in April when our borders were closed, and the limit was 6370. What is happening? No one seems to care about the 34,000.


*

Recent advice from a well-promoted travel agent was that, if one left the country today, one could not expect to be back home until 2024. Why is the government not making this clear for those waiting to come home, and those wanting to leave?

+

See: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-30/australia-hasnt-learnt-the-lessons-its-bungled-vaccine-rollout/100252912

#

These calculations ignore hotel quarantine. One could speculate that numbers entering Australia over and above, and before the waiting 34,000, will fill up available hotel places and hopefully not take any Howard Springs spaces. Ironically, this number will also reduce the number who can come from the 34,000, with the limit being 3035 a week that has further restrictions with different numbers at different locations: but look at the April 21 figures above! - ? ++

^

The numbers for the '3035' total are:

Sydney 1505

Melbourne 500

Adelaide 265

Perth 265

Brisbane 650

Strangely, this breakdown equals 3185.

This is half of the original figure of 6370 as it is supposed to be.

National Cabinet doesn't seem to be able to get anything right by spruiking the 3035 figure.

Just what is going on?

It seems obvious that the maths are never done.



 **

The government refutes this, saying that the numbers are additional to the quota; but just recently 850 Olympic participants returned from Tokyo and moved into Howard Springs, taking valuable quarantine accommodation that is no longer available for others left stranded, waiting to get home.

##

Howard Springs Quarantine Facility

Howard Springs is supposed to be our ‘gold standard’ in quarantine facilities. Photographs show tat entry doors to adjacent units are side by side; and adjacent facilities share a stair and verandah handrail. The problems with hotel quarantine have all come from adjacency. Good quarantine facilities need to make sure such situations do not exist. There is a problem when the distancing rules are not implemented. The local vaccination/testing centre, (why mix these?), has the same problem: seating is placed side by side with no gaps. Here, at this converted shop with toilet cubicle-like divisions, the other poor example is the lack of masks and gloves. There is no standard that is maintained, let alone anything ‘gold.’ No one appears to care.


Howard Springs Quarantine Facility


NOTE

It might seem odd to have this subject raised in an architectural blog, but one can see it as a matter of principle in design: forget or ignore the facts at your peril. Putting off uncomfortable decisions is never a solution: see -

https://voussoirs.blogspot.com/2018/12/design-strategy-brexit-whims-wishful.html

https://voussoirs.blogspot.com/2019/02/building-dreams-how-to.html

https://voussoirs.blogspot.com/2021/02/rietvelds-chair-compromised-de-stijl.html

Rigour and commitment, and honesty, are needed. With these qualities being required for good outcomes, there is little wonder that the politicians have given us such a muddle.




The latest reports say that over 38,000 people reman stranded overseas, waiting to be allowed to come home. There is no talk of any 'Dunkirk' solution, so these folk can expect a long wait: and who cares? Not the Australian government or the smirking Mr. Morrison. Is it the next election that remains critical, and nothing else? Why has no resolute action been taken? Why is there no plan?


 4 AUGUST 2021


See also:


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-03/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-scott-morrison-original-timetable/100342474


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/03/politics-rides-roughshod-over-substance-as-scott-morrison-tries-to-spin-his-way-out-of-covid-corner?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2021/aug/03/australian-way-australian-results-scott-morrisons-28-australias-in-one-press-conference-video?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


6 AUGUST 2021

See:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-06/inquiry-on-covid-vaccine-rollout-mistakes/100354006


20 JAN 2022

At last, a reporter who is thinking, and doing some maths:

https://thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2022/01/19/michael-pascoe-omicron-intentional-scenario/

DESIGN AS DREAMING A HUNT: NOT HUNTING A DREAM


How can we know the general direction we should follow? How can anyone who has not dreamed the whole route begin to locate himself on such a map? When Joseph, or any of the other men, began to draw a hunting map, he had first to find his way. He did this by recognizing features, by fixing points of reference, and then, once he was oriented to the familiar and to the scale or manner in which the familiar was reproduced, he could begin to add his own layers of detailed information.



How can one design? How can we know the general direction we should follow? These words quoted above touch most profoundly what the act of design is in a remarkable manner. The text that they come from, their context, is reproduced below: it embellishes the understanding of this subtle and complex matter.


Sibusiso Mthembu in front of his map to Heaven.  

Most attempts to describe the process of design become too prescriptive, or too vaguely mystical, leaving one concerned with the directions defined as a precisely rational method, (Heath Method in Architecture Wiley & Sons UK 1984 ); or as the seemingly fanciful vagaries of things strangely abstract, (Kandinsky Concerning the Spiritual in Art Munich 1911; translated 1914). Here, in these words as remembered by Hugh Brody, there is a marvellous amalgam of both circumstances, the mystic and factual, that engages both the feeling body and the thinking mind as an acting, responsive whole.



In summary:

When one starts to design: begin by finding the way; recognizing features; fixing points of reference; then, once familiar with scale and manner of reproduction, with this understanding of the realization, add other layers of detailed information.



Hugh Brody

One is reluctant to add more, other than to note the particular context of these words that expands the relevance of the message; gives it depth and coherence. The words are in Hugh Brody’s Maps and Dreams, Jill Norman & Hobhouse, London, 1981, a study of the Indians on the British Columbia frontier. Pages 44 to 48 are reproduced here in full, for clarification of a matter that is truly difficult to put into words. The point is that the experience is a dreaming of a hunt, rather than the hunt for the clever, dream project; the search for something adequately fanciful, different, and eye-catchingly startling, that can declare one’s brilliance. There is something subtly different embodied here; something rich, modest, and personally meaningful; something true, with depth, that seeks nothing like the ‘bold, creative, bespoke self-expression’ that art and architecture has become - (c.f. Gehry, Hadid).# Silence is important; and a quality of intimate being too: goodness; both matters that are alien to our ‘clever, self-important’ world today.

For those who do not understand, hunting and life itself are restricted and difficult. So the people must be told everything, and taught all that they need, in order to withstand the incursions presently being made into their way of life, their land, and into their very dreams.



#

One could add Mies van der Rohe too – see Alex Beam’s Broken Glass Random House, NY, 2020. The Farnsworth house stands as an example of heroic modernism, still idealised today in spite of its obvious failings. One is left wondering just what we are now involved in with such ‘disastrous’ projects remaining as gleaming icons of our ambitions, listed by the New York Times as one of the 25 most influential post-war buildings. The house was built on a flood plain, with one door and one set of windows; the roof leaked; it was hot in summer and cold in winter; the travertine that cost a sixth of the budget, heaved with the weather . . . etc., etc. - see the book. Yet it is still one of the best, one of the most influential houses in the USA; indeed, in the world. What is happening?


The Post-war icon.

The challenge of modernism?



MAPS AND DREAMS

pp44-48


There was a brief silence made awkward by expectancy, though an awkward pause is a very rare thing among people who accept that there is no need to escape from silence, no need to use words as a way to avoid one another, no need to obscure the real.

Atsin broke this silence. He spoke at first of the research. “I bet some guys make big maps. Lots of work, these maps. Joseph, he sure is happy is happy to see maps.”

Silence again. Then Robert continued: “Yeah, lots of maps. All over this country we hunt. Fish too. Trapping places. Nobody knows that. White men don't know that.”

Then Jimmy spoke: "Indian guys, old-timers, they make maps too."

With these words, the men introduced their theme. The tone was friendly, but the words were spoken with intensity and firmness. The men seemed apprehensive, as if anxious to be very clearly understood - though nothing said so far required such concern. Once again, it is impossible to render verbatim all that they eventually said. I had no tape recorder and memory is imperfect. But even a verbatim account would fail to do justice to their meaning. Here, then, in summaries and glimpses, is what the men had in mind to say.

Some old-timers, men who became famous for their powers and skills, had been great dreamers. Hunters and dreamers. They did not hunt as most people now do. They did not seek uncertainly for the trails of animals whose movements we can only guess at. No, they located their prey in dreams, found their trails, and made dream-kills. Then, the next day, or a few days later, whenever it seemed auspicious to do so, they could go out, find the trail, re-encounter the animal, and collect the kill.

Maybe, said Atsin, you think this is all nonsense, just so much bullshit. Maybe you don't think this power is possible. Few people understand. The old-timers who were strong dreamers knew many things that are not easy to understand. People - white people, young people - yes, they laugh at such skills. But they do not know. The Indians around this country know a lot about power. In fact, everyone has had some experience of it. The fact that dream-hunting works has been proved many times.

A few years ago a hunter dreamed a cow moose kill. A fine, fat cow. He was so pleased with the animal, so delighted to make this dream-kill, that he marked the animal's hooves. Now he would be sure to recognize it when he went on the coming hunt. The next day, when he went out into the bush, he quickly found the dream-trail. He followed it, and came to a large cow moose. Sure enough, the hooves bore his marks. Everyone saw them. All the men around the fire had been told about the marks, and everyone on the Reserve had come to look at those hooves when the animal was butchered and brought into the people's homes.

And not only that fat cow moose – many such instances are known to the people, whose marks on the animal or other indications show that there was no mistaking, no doubts about the efficacy of such dreams. Do you think this is all lies? No, this is power they had, something they knew how to use. This was their way of doing things, the right way. They understood, those old-timers, just where all the animals came from. The trails converge, and if you were a very strong dreamer you could discover this, and see the source of trails, the origin of game. Dreaming revealed them. Good hunting depended upon such knowledge.

Today it is hard to find men who can dream this way. There are too many problems. Too much drinking. Too little respect. People are not good enough now. Maybe there will again be strong dreamers when these problems are overcome. Then more maps will be made. New maps.

Oh yes, Indians made maps. You would not take any notice of them. You might say such maps are crazy. But maybe the Indians would say that is what your maps are: the same thing. Different maps from different people - different ways. Old-timers made maps of trails, ornamented them with lots of fancy. The good people.

None of this is easy to understand. But good men, the really good men, could dream of more than animals. Sometimes they heaven and its trails. Those trails are hard to see, and few men have had such dreams. Even if they could see dream-trails to heaven, it is hard to explain them. You draw maps of the land, show everyone go. You explain the hills, the rivers, the trails from here to Hudson Hope, the roads. Maybe you make maps of where the hunters go and where the fish can be caught. That is not easy. But easier, for sure, than drawing out the trails to heaven. You may laugh at these the trails to heaven, but they were done by the good men who had the heaven dream, who wanted to tell the truth. They worked hard on their truth.

Atsin had done most of the talking this far. The others interjected a few words and comments, agreeing or elaborating a little. Jimmy told about the cow moose with marked hooves. All of them offered some comparisons between their own and others' maps. And the men's eyes never ceased to remain fixed on me: were they being understood? Disregarded? Thought ridiculous? They had chosen this moment for these explanations, yet no one was entirely secure in it. Several times, Atsin paused and waited, perhaps to give himself a chance to sense or absorb the reaction to his words. These were intense but not tense hiatuses. Everyone was reassuring himself that his seriousness was being recognized. That was all they needed to continue.

The longest of these pauses might have lasted as much as five minutes. During it the fire was rebuilt. It seemed possible, for moments, that they had finished, and that their attention was now returning to trout, camp, and the hunt. But the atmosphere altered, and Jimmy quite abruptly took over where Atsin had left off.

The few good men who had the heaven dream were like the Fathers, Catholic priests, men who devoted themselves others to helping with that essential knowledge to which ordinary women have limited access. (Roman Catholic priests have drifted in and out of the lives of all the region's Indians, leaving behind fragments of their knowledge and somewhat rarefied and idealized versions of what they had to preach.) Most important of all, a strong dreamer can tell others how to get to heaven. We all have need of the trail, or a complex of trails, but, unlike other important trails, the way to heaven will have been seen in dreams that only a few, special individuals have had. Maps of heaven are thus important. And they must be good, complete maps. Heaven is reached only by careful avoidance of the wrong trails. These must also be shown so that the traveller can recognize and avoid them.

How can we know the general direction we should follow? How can anyone who has not dreamed the whole route begin to locate himself on such a map? When Joseph, or any of the other men, began to draw a hunting map, he had first to find his way. He did this by recognizing features, by fixing points of reference, and then, once he was oriented to the familiar and to the scale or manner in which the familiar was reproduced, he could begin to add his own layers of detailed information. But how can anyone begin to find a way on a map of trails to heaven, across a terrain that ordinary hunters do not experience in everyday activities or even in their dream-hunts?

The route to heaven is not wholly unfamiliar, however. As it happens, heaven is to one side of, and at the same level as, the point where the trails to animals all meet. Many men know where this point is, or at least some of its approach trails, from their own hunting dreams. Hunters can in this way find a basic reference, and once they realize that heaven is in a particular relation to this far more familiar centre, the map as a whole can be read. If this is not enough, a person can take a map with him; some old-timers who made or who were given maps of the trails to heaven choose to have a map buried with them. They can thus remind themselves which ways to travel if the actual experience of the trail proves to be too confusing. Others are given a corner of a map that will help reveal the trail to them. And even those who do not have any powerful dreams are shown the best maps of the route to heaven. The discoveries of the very few most powerful dreamers - and some of the dreamers have been women - are periodically made available to everyone.

The person who wishes to dream must take great care, even if he dreams only of the hunt. He must lie in the correct orientation, with his head towards the rising sun. There should be no ordinary trails, no human pathways, between his pillow and the bush. These would be confusing to the self that travels in dreams towards important and unfamiliar trails which can lead to a kill. Not much of this can be mapped - only the trail to heaven has been drawn up. There has been no equivalent need to make maps to share other in information.

Sometime, said Jimmy Wolf, you will see one of these maps. There are some of them around. Then the competence and strength of the old-timers who drew them will be unquestioned. Different trails can be explained, and heaven can be located on them. Yes, they were pretty smart, the men who drew them. Smarter than any white man in these parts and smarter than Indians of today. Perhaps, said Atsin, in the future there will be men good enough to make new maps of heaven - but not just now. There will be changes, he added, and the people will come once again to understand the things that Atsin's father had tried to teach him. In any case, he said, the older men are now trying to explain the powers and dreams of old-timers to the young, indeed to all those who have not been raised with these spiritual riches. For those who do not understand, hunting and life itself are restricted and difficult. So the people must be told everything, and taught all that they need, in order to withstand the incursions presently being made into their way of life, their land, and into their very dreams.


 A map of Heaven made by an Athapaskan tribe in northeastern British Columbia.


A map of paradise

 

POSTSCRIPT

While the process of design can be spoken of as noted above - when one starts to design: begin by finding the way; recognizing features; fixing points of reference; then, once familiar with scale and manner of reproduction, with this understanding of the realization, add other layers of detailed information - there is still something missing: how? Something more is needed; something more specific about the process, the experience, is required.

Hugh Brody's text helps here again where he describes the planning for the hunt; the decision-making process. The words are astonishing in their clarity and precision, and hold a subtle relevance to the process of design; to explaining it; to capturing some sense of the involvement necessary without destroying its qualities with the rigorous, rational analysis we see in Heath's text.




MAPS AND DREAMS

pp36-37

. . . the twin spectres of hunger and homelessness, whose fearsome imminence is escaped only in the bright sunlight of planning. Planners consider many possibilities, weigh methods, review timing, and at least seek to deduce what is best. To this end they advocate reason and temperance, and, most important, they are thrifty and save. These ideas and dispositions, elevated to an ideal in the economics of nineteenth-century and secular puritanism, live on in the reaction of industrial society to hunters - and in the average Canadian’s reaction to Indians. And a reaction of this kind means that a person even if inclined to be sympathetic to hunters and hunting, has immense difficulty in understanding what planning means for hunters of the North.

Joseph and his family float possibilities. “Maybe we should go to Copper Creek. Bet you lots of moose up there.” Or, "Could be caribou right now near Black Flats.” Or, “I bet you no deer this time down on the Reserve...” Somehow a general area is selected from a gossamer of possibilities, and from an accumulation of remarks comes something rather like a consensus. No, that is not really it: rather, a sort of prediction, a combined sense of where we might go “tomorrow." Yet the hunt will not have been planned, nor any preparations started, and apparently no one is committed to going. Moreover, the floating conversation will have alighted on several irreconcilable possibilities, or have given rise to quasi-predictions. It is as if the predictions are about other people – or are not quite serious. Although the mood is still one of wait and see, at the end of the day, at the close of much slow and gentle talk about this and that, a strong feeling has arisen about the morning: we shall go to Bluestone, maybe as far as the cross. We shall look for trout as well as moose. A number of individuals agree that they will go. But come morning, nothing is ready. No one has made any practical, formal plans. As often as not — indeed, more often than not - something quite new has drifted into conversations, other predictions have been tentatively reached, a new consensus appears to be forming often seems, everyone has changed his mind.

The way to understand this kind of decision making, as also to live by and even share it, is to recognize that some of the most important variables are subtle, elusive, and extremely hard or impossible to assess with finality. The Athapaskan hunter will move in a direction and at a time that are determined by a sense of weather (to indicate a variable that is easily grasped if all too easily oversimplified by the one word) and by a sense of rightness. He will also have ideas about animal movement, his own and others' patterns of land use ... But already the nature of the hunter's decision making is being misrepresented by this kind of listing. To disconnect the variables, to compartmentalize the thinking, is to fail to acknowledge its sophistication and completeness. He considers variables as a composite, in parallel, and with the help of a blending of the metaphysical and the obviously pragmatic. To make a good, wise, sensible hunting choice is to accept the interconnection of all possible factors, and avoids the mistake of seeking rationally to focus on any one consideration that is held as primary. What is more, the decision is taken in the doing: there is no step or pause between theory and practice. As a consequence, the decision - like the action from which it is inseparable - is always alterable (and therefore may not properly even be termed a decision). The hunter moves in a chosen direction; but, highly sensitive to so many shifting considerations, he is always ready to change his directions.

Planning, as other cultures understand the notion, is at odds with this kind of sensitivity and would confound such flexibility. The hunter, alive to constant movements of nature, spirits, and human moods, maintains a way of doing things that repudiates a firm plan and any precise or specified understanding with others of what he is going to do. His course of action is not, must not be, a matter of predetermination. If a plan constitutes a decision about the right procedure or action, and the decision is congruent with the action, then there is no space left for a "plan," only for a bundle of open-ended and nonrational possibilities. Activity enters so far into this kind of planning as to undermine any so-called plans.

All this is by way of context or background for the seemingly straightforward proposal that we should set out the next morning.




Using Brody's words:

Designing involves pondering a gossamer of possibilities; alighting on several irreconcilable possibilities that give rise to quasi-predictions; no one is committed: something quite new might drift into conversations, other predictions tentatively reached; a new consensus might appear to be forming. Some of the most important variables are subtle, elusive, and extremely hard or impossible to assess with finality, but they are gauged by a sense of rightness.

Variables are considered as a composite, in parallel, and with the help of a blending of the metaphysical and the obviously pragmatic. The mistake of seeking rationally to focus on any one consideration that is held as primary has to be avoided. The decision - like the action from which it is inseparable - is always alterable, remaining highly sensitive to so many shifting considerations. One has to be always ready to change a decision about the right procedure or action. There is no space left for a "plan," only for a bundle of open-ended and nonrational possibilities.

Is this the dreaming of the hunt? Even the good men struggled with explanations:

Those trails are hard to see, and few men have had such dreams. Even if they could see dream-trails to heaven, it is hard to explain them.

We'll have to learn to stop hunting the dream.


 “Journey of the Dead to Dhuwa”,
Land of the Dead for the Jiridja Australians, by Binyinyuwuy, 1948.